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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 109.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 109.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 108.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.9N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 13.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 109.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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