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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032023
2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.9W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 107.9W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 107.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.8N 110.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.2N 118.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.7N 121.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 15.7N 130.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 107.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI
 
 
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