ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E
Intermediate Advisory Number 1A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Corrected to change 5 days to 7 days in the genesis probabilities 
section.
 
...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... 
...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
ON THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 97.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
13.8 North, longitude 97.3 West.  The system is moving toward the
northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected
to continue for next few days.  On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move near the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected
to become a tropical storm by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO
header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep2.shtml
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday.
 
RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches,
with maximum amounts of 7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico
from Oaxaca west to Jalisco.  This rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding.
 
SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to build and
spread along the southwestern coast during the next couple days.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN