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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022023
2100 UTC THU JUN 29 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  99.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  99.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  99.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N 100.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 102.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.8N 106.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.6N 107.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.5N 109.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  99.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 30/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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