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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022023
0300 UTC THU JUN 29 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  96.8W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  96.8W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  96.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N  98.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.4N 100.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.6N 101.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.9N 103.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 20.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  96.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 29/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/PASCH
 
 
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