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Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

The center of Beatriz brushed the coast of Mexico near Punta San 
Telmo back around 0000 UTC, and since then the cyclone has steadily 
lost organization.  Earlier microwave satellite imagery shows that 
the eye has disappeared, while scatterometer and synthetic aperture 
radar data suggest that the surface circulation has become less well 
defined.  In addition, surface observations in and around Manzanillo 
have not been supportive of a well-defined circulation in the area.  
Based on these observations and an accompanying decrease in the 
satellite cloud pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to an 
uncertain 55 kt.
 
Although Beatriz will be moving away from the coast of Mexico later 
today, the dynamical models suggest that the cyclone will not 
recover from the effects of land interaction, with most of them 
forecasting the system to dissipate to 2-3 days time or less.  The 
new NHC intensity forecast is notably lower than the previous 
forecast and calls for the system to weaken to a depression by 60 h 
and dissipate soon thereafter.  There is a chance that Beatriz could 
weaken faster than currently forecast.

The initial motion is estimated at 315/11 kt as the cyclone 
continues to move along the southwest periphery of a mid-level 
ridge.  This general motion should continue during the next 12-24 
hours, taking the core of Beatriz along or just offshore of the 
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this morning.  After 
that time, assuming the storm survives, a slower and generally 
west-northwestward motion is expected.  The NHC track forecast is 
similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Beatriz is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to 
portions of western Mexico today.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western
Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of
Sinaloa and Durango.  These rains could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 19.4N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 20.5N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 22.1N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 22.4N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 22.6N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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