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Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
 
Recent GOES 1-minute visible and infrared satellite imagery show 
that an eye is forming.  A special classification from TAFB yielded 
an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, and raw UW-CIMSS ADT values are also up 
to 4.0.  Therefore, Beatriz has been upgraded to a hurricane with 
maximum winds estimated to be 65 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
plane is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, 
hopefully providing a refinement in the estimated intensity.
 
Beatriz's initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt.  The
storm is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next
48 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge located over the southern United States and
northern Mexico.  However, as is often the case with cyclones
paralleling the west coast of Mexico, there is significant
uncertainty as to whether Beatriz's center will continue to skirt
the coast or move inland at some point.  The NHC track forecast
continues to show a scenario where Beatriz grazes the coast during
the next 24-36 hours, but models such as the ECMWF and UKMET do
bring the system inland and show dissipation.  If Beatriz survives
the next 48 hours, it would then likely slow down and turn toward
the west-northwest as a mid-level ridge builds over the
southwestern U.S.
 
If Beatriz's center remains offshore, environmental conditions
should otherwise be conducive for additional strengthening during
the next 12-24 hours, and the storm is forecast to remain a 
hurricane until after it passes Cabo Corrientes.  On the other hand, 
if the center reaches land, the mountainous terrain of Mexico would 
likely cause rapid weakening.  Assuming survival during the next 36 
hours, increasing shear out of the east-northeast, cooler sea 
surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident environment would 
likely lead to gradual weakening on days 2 and 3.  Based on the 
latest global model guidance, Beatriz is likely to have degenerated 
into a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Beatriz is forecast to continue strengthening and remain a 
hurricane through Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force 
winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico during the next day or so.  A Hurricane Warning is 
in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, 
and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in
those areas later today and on Saturday.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from
the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit.  These rains
could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 18.2N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 20.4N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 21.3N 107.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 22.0N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 22.6N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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