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Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

The convective pattern associated with Beatriz has become more 
concentrated since the last advisory, with stronger convection near 
the center and more convective banding.  Two ASCAT overpasses back 
around 04Z showed winds of 45-50 kt located about 20 n mi to the 
northeast of the center.  Based on this data and the increase in 
organization since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 
a possibly conservative 50 kt.

The initial motion is now 305/11 kt.  During the next several days, 
a combination of a mid-level ridge to the north-northeast and 
Hurricane Adrian to the west should steer Beatriz generally 
northwestward.  While the models generally agree with this scenario, 
there are important differences among them on how close Beatriz will 
get to the coast of Mexico.  The GFS and the HWRF are on the left 
side of the guidance envelope and keep the center a significant 
distance offshore.  On the other hand, the ECMWF, the UKMET, and the 
Canadian models all bring the center onshore in western Mexico in 
24-36 h.  The early part of the new track forecast keeps the center 
just offshore of the coast through 36 h as a blend of the previous 
forecast and the HFIP Corrected Consensus model.  However, any 
motion to the right of the track would result in Beatriz making 
landfall in Mexico.  The remainder of the forecast track shows 
Beatriz slowing its forward motion and turning more toward the west 
in response to mid-level ridging to the north, with the center 
passing south or near the southern end of the Baja California 
peninsula.

Beatriz is in an area of light- to moderate northeasterly shear and 
over very warm sea surface temperatures.  Based on these conditions, 
and on the inner core convective structure seen earlier in 37-GHz 
microwave imagery, steady to rapid intensification is expected 
during the next 24 h as long as the center stays offshore.  Beatriz 
is expected to become a hurricane later today and maintain hurricane 
strength through 48 h.  After that time, decreasing sea surface 
temperatures along the forecast track should lead to weakening, with 
the system currently forecast to decay to a remnant low by 120 h.  
If the center moves inland over Mexico, the mountainous terrain 
should cause rapid weakening, and Beatriz, if it survives, would be 
much weaker than currently forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Beatriz is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane
later today, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a
dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next couple of days.  A Hurricane Warning is now
in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima,
and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in
those areas later today and on Saturday.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from
the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit.  These rains
could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 16.3N 101.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 17.3N 102.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 18.7N 104.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 21.0N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 21.7N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 22.1N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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