ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Beatriz is still in the organizing stage at this time.  Some 
convective banding features are starting to develop near and west 
of the estimated center location.  Although the outer cloud 
structure is becoming better defined, deep convection is 
currently not very strong near the center.  Dvorak satellite 
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain at 30 and 35 kt 
respectively, so the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

Although the center is not that easy to locate, the latest center 
fixes indicate that the motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt. 
Over the next few days, a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast 
of Beatriz should steer the cyclone on a generally northwestward 
heading.  There continues to be significant difference among the 
track models, however, with the HAFS and ECMWF models bringing the 
center onshore in 36-48 hours and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON 
guidance keeping the core of Beatriz offshore.  The official 
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows the center on the 
coast in the 36-hour time frame, in closer agreement with the ECMWF 
solution.  It is important to note that Beatriz's oblique angle of 
approach to the southwestern coast of Mexico makes it difficult to 
know exactly where the center might come onshore, if at all, and 
therefore a larger-than-normal part of the coastline is at risk of 
some effects from the storm.  Over the weekend the ridge weakens, 
and the forward motion of Beatriz is likely to slow.

The atmospheric and oceanic environment for Beatriz appears to be 
quite conducive for strengthening, with low vertical shear, high 
mid-level humidity, and SSTs near 30 deg C.  The SHIP rapid 
intensification (RI) indices show a greater than normal chance for 
RI during the next day or so, and the official forecast calls for 
Beatriz to become a hurricane in just 24 hours.  This is on the 
high side of the intensity model guidance. The cyclone's intensity 
in 36-48 hours will be dependent on how much the system interacts 
with land.  At this time, the official forecast calls for at least 
some land interaction and weakening in a couple of days.  Later in 
the forecast period, drier air and cooler waters are expected to 
cause weakening, and the model guidance indicates that Beatriz will 
degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Beatriz is forecast to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane
later on Friday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a 
dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico during the next couple of days.  A Hurricane Warning is now 
in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, 
and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in 
those areas Friday and Saturday.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from
the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco.  These rains
could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 15.5N 100.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 16.5N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 17.9N 103.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 19.3N 104.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...ON COAST
 48H  02/0000Z 20.1N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 21.0N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 21.5N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 22.1N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 23.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN