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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023
 
The system the NHC has been monitoring off of Mexico is starting to 
show signs of organization based on geostationary satellite imagery. 
 An elongated area of low pressure has formed with convection
gradually building over the past several hours.  The current 
subjective satellite estimate from TAFB give the disturbance a 
T-number of 1.5, suggesting that it is close to becoming a tropical 
cyclone, but it has not quite become one yet.  The initial intensity 
is estimated to 25 kt for this advisory.  
 
The disturbance is moving northwestward at about 10 kt.  This 
general motion is expected to continue as the system moves along the 
southwest periphery of a mid-level trough centered over the 
southern United States.  At the end of the forecast period, the 
system is expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level flow. 
 There is increased uncertainty in this track forecast due to the 
uncertainty in the location of where the storm will ultimately 
form. A more northern position will likely bring the potential 
cyclone closer to Mexican coast.  The NHC track forecast is closest 
to the simple consensus aid.

The potential tropical cyclone is embedded in an environment 
conducive for intensification, with low vertical wind shear and high 
mid-level moisture.  The system is also over warm sea surface 
temperatures of more than 30 degrees C.  Model guidance is in fairly 
good agreement that the disturbance will become a tropical cyclone 
in the next day or so and steadily strengthen over the next few 
days.  Atmospheric and ocean conditions are expected to become more 
hostile day 4 and beyond, likely leading to weakening.  The official 
intensity forecast is closest to the LGEM model.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the southwestern 
coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas, and 
tropical storm conditions should begin within this area by Thursday 
afternoon.

2. Locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 
7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from the state of 
Oaxaca westward to the state of Jalisco.  These rains could lead to 
localized flash flooding. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 13.5N  96.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/1200Z 14.3N  98.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  30/0000Z 15.4N 100.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 16.6N 101.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 17.9N 103.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 20.6N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 22.5N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
 
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