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Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023

Adrian's structure continues decaying. Most of the remaining deep 
convection that was displaced to the northwest of the low-level 
center has dissipated. In response, both subjective and objective 
intensity estimates continue to decrease. In addition, an 0519 UTC 
ASCAT-B pass over Adrian had a peak wind retrieval of only 30-kt. 
Based primarily on the scatterometer data, Adrian is being 
downgraded to a tropical depression this advisory with 30-kt winds. 
Further weakening is anticipated in a dry and stable environment 
with sea-surface temperatures below 24 C that cool further along the 
cyclone's track. If deep convection does not return later today, 
Adrian could be declared a post-tropical remnant low as soon as this 
afternoon.

Adrian continues moving west-northwestward at about 300/6 kt. This 
motion should continue with a gradual turn westward, following the 
trade wind flow south of a low-level anticyclone. The latest NHC 
track is quite similar to the prior one, and lies near the 
various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 19.3N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.7N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/0600Z 20.1N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1800Z 20.2N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 20.1N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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