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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023
 
Adrian is rapidly weakening. The cyclone is only producing a small
area of deep convection, which is displaced to the west of its
center due to some easterly shear. The significantly degraded
satellite structure of Adrian indicates it is no longer a hurricane,
and the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt based on the latest
Dvorak data-T numbers (T3.5) from TAFB and SAB. The center of Adrian
is passing very near Clarion Island, where a Mexican navy automated
weather station has reported sustained winds of 25-30 kt and gusts
of 40-50 kt during the past several hours.
 
The initial motion of Adrian is west-northwestward at 300/6 kt.
Additional weakening is expected as Adrian continues to move
generally west-northwestward toward cooler waters and into a drier,
more stable environment. As a result, simulated satellite imagery
from the global and hurricane models suggest that Adrian could
become devoid of organized convection within the next 24 h. The NHC
forecast shows Adrian weakening to a tropical depression by early
Sunday and degenerating to a remnant low soon thereafter. Then, the
shallow low should turn more westward within the low-level flow and
eventually dissipate by Tuesday. Overall, no significant changes
were made to the official forecast with this advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 18.4N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 18.8N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.2N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 19.6N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1200Z 19.8N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0000Z 19.8N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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