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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023
 
Adrian appears to have begun its anticipated weakening trend.  The 
eye is no long apparent on geostationary satellite imagery and 
cloud top temperatures have warmed overall.  Microwave satellite 
imagery from 2037 UTC showed deep convection only to the west of 
center, implying the easterly shear has increased.  Subjective 
satellite intensity estimates have also decreased and the final 
T-numbers are at T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB.  Therefore, the 
initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 80 kt.

The hurricane has crossed the 26 degree C sea surface temperature 
isotherm this evening and SSTs along the track forecast are 
projected to decrease steadily.  Adrian is also moving into an dry 
and stable airmass.  Model guidance all predict steady to rapid 
weakening in the next couple of days.  The NHC intensity forecast is 
on the higher end of the model guidance and shows steady weakening.  
Adrian is expected to be a tropical storm in the next day or so and 
a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h.

Adrian is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  A general 
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days 
as the storm is steered by a ridge to the northeast.  A gradual turn 
to the west is forecast as the decaying vortex is caught in the 
low-level flow.  The latest track prediction is similar to the 
previous advisory and close to the corrected consensus track 
guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 18.1N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 19.4N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.7N 117.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  03/1200Z 19.9N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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