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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012023
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023
 
The overall satellite presentation of Adrian has improved this
morning. The eye is embedded deeper within a more symmetric central
dense overcast and surrounded by a ring of deep convection with
infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -60 deg C. Recent SSMIS
microwave images reveal a well-defined mid-level eyewall, although
some vertical tilt is noted between the 91 GHz and 37 GHz channels,
which suggests Adrian may be experiencing some easterly shear. The
initial intensity is a bit more uncertain than normal given the
large spread in the satellite intensity estimates, which range from
77-102 kt. Based on the improved satellite structure, the initial
intensity is raised to 90 kt for this advisory. This lies in between
the subjective SAB and TAFB Dvorak estimates, and is in best
agreement with recent UW-CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates.
 
The hurricane is forecast to cross the 26 deg C SST isotherm and
encounter increased easterly shear during the next 12 to 24 h.
Therefore, the official NHC forecast shows gradual weakening in the
near term, followed by more rapid weakening as the cyclone becomes
increasingly sheared and moves over even cooler waters. Adrian will
likely struggle to produce organized convection beyond 48 h given
these hostile conditions, and it is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low shortly thereafter and dissipate by early Wednesday.
 
Adrian has recently been moving more northwestward, and its initial
motion is 305/6 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, around the
southwestern periphery of mid-tropospheric high pressure centered
over the southern United States. As Adrian loses deep convection and
becomes more vertically shallow, the remnant low is expected to turn
more westward on Monday within the low-level trade wind flow. Once
again, the center of Adrian and the latest track guidance has
trended to the right of the previous forecast, and so the updated
NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 18.6N 115.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 19.0N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 19.2N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1200Z 19.4N 119.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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