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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
A ragged eye briefly emerged in visible satellite imagery today, but
it has once again become obscured by the central dense overcast of
Adrian. It appears that the hurricane is struggling with some drier
mid-level air in the surrounding environment. A dry slot is wrapping
around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and
earlier SSMIS microwave data showed a weakness in the inner-core
convection around the eyewall. The 18 UTC subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T4.5/77 kt, while the
objective ADT and SATCON estimates are in the 65-70 kt range. A
blend of these data support keeping the initial intensity at 75 kt
for this advisory.
The vertical wind shear is forecast to gradually increase over
Adrian during the next several days, which is expected to induce a
weakening trend that is supported by all the available intensity
guidance. The official NHC forecast remains near or just above the
latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Based on the latest GFS and
ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery, the updated NHC forecast
shows Adrian becoming post-tropical at day 3, as it appears likely
to lose all deep convection over cooler waters and within a drier
and stronger shear environment. While the official forecast carries
a remnant low through day 5, it could be near dissipation by the end
of the period.
The track of Adrian today has been to the right of previous
forecasts, and its initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.
The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward
during the next few days while being steered by a high-pressure
ridge to its northeast. The updated NHC forecast has again been
adjusted to the right of the previous one, and it generally lies
between the TVCE and HCCA aids. As the shallow remnant low spins
down later in the forecast period, it is expected to turn more
westward within the low-level flow.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.8N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.2N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 18.6N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1800Z 18.7N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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