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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Early morning AMSR2 microwave images of Adrian revealed a
well-defined eye signature in the 89 GHz and 37 GHz channels,
although a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level centers
suggests some vortex tilt with height. In conventional satellite
imagery, the deepest inner-core convection is confined to the
southern and eastern portions of the circulation, while cloud tops
have recently warmed to the northwest of the center. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and
the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory.
Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear through this
evening could allow for some additional strengthening. Then, Adrian
is forecast to encounter stronger easterly shear as it moves over
gradually cooler waters, which is likely to induce weakening by this
weekend and early next week. The official NHC forecast lies slightly
above the IVCN consensus aid in the near term, then shows more rapid
weakening beyond 48 h. Unfavorable environmental conditions should
make it difficult for Adrian to sustain organized convection beyond
72 h, and Adrian is forecast to be a remnant low at days 4 and 5.
Adrian is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. This
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days
with little change to the overall steering pattern. The center of
Adrian was relocated slightly farther north based on the early
morning microwave data, and the updated NHC forecast lies to the
right of the previous one in the direction of the TVCE/HCCA aids.
The latest track guidance also keeps Adrian on a more steady
westward course through the forecast period. As a result, this
forecast is somewhat faster than previous issuances at days 3-5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 16.0N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.2N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.6N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 17.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.1N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z 18.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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