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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023
Adrian's satellite presentation has shown little change in
organization since earlier today. Central convection has been
waxing and waning, and the eye is not very well defined. Some
banding features are evident and the upper-level outflow is still a
bit impeded to the north of the system. Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from both SAB and TAFB have not changed since the last
advisory cycle, so the intensity estimate remains 70 kt.
Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Adrian
should remain fairly low for the next day or so. Therefore some
additional strengthening is forecast in the short term. By 48
hours, increasing easterly shear, associated with an
upper-tropospheric high building to the north of Adrian, is
anticipated. This, coupled with cooler ocean waters, should cause
weakening. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
statistical-dynamical guidance and the dynamical model consensus.
Adrian continues to plod slowly westward, or at about 280/5 kt. A
weak mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone
should maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion until late
in the forecast period. In 4 to 5 days, the ridge weakens and
Adrian's motion should slow even further. Another factor in the
track late in the period is the possible interaction of Adrian
or its remnant low with another system to the east. The details of
this interaction are quite uncertain at this time, and the official
track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.6N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 15.8N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 16.1N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 16.4N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 16.8N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 17.1N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 17.3N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 17.3N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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