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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023
Despite the well-defined structure noted in microwave imagery from
this morning, Adrian's visible and infrared satellite presentation
is quite ragged. An eye appears to be forming, but deep convection
appears thin within the northern eyewall, possibly due to continued
northerly shear beneath the outflow level. Still, both subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates have risen since this
morning, and Adrian's initial intensity is therefore set at 70 kt.
Recent fixes suggest the hurricane has slowed down, and the initial
motion estimate is westward, or 275/5 kt. Mid-tropospheric ridging
to the north of Adrian is expected to weaken during the next couple
of days as a mid-level trough develops west of the Baja California
peninsula, and that should keep the hurricane's forward motion
relatively slow toward the west or west-northwest for the entire
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to the various
consensus aids, and the guidance envelope is tightly clustered
through at least day 3. However, it's notable that the HCCA aid
is slower than much of the other guidance, and given Adrian's
recent slower-than-expected motion, it's possible that future
forecasts could be slowed down further to account for this trend.
There is a noticeable dichotomy in the intensity guidance, with the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models showing much more
additional intensification compared to the dynamical models and
consensus aids, which show Adrian's intensity flat-lining soon. A
little more strengthening is indicated in the NHC intensity
forecast since vertical shear is expected to be low for the next 36
to 48 hours. Fast weakening is anticipated after 48 hours due to
a significant increase in easterly shear, as well as cooler waters.
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECWMF models suggests
that Adrian could lose deep convection by day 4, and the official
forecast therefore calls for the system to degenerate into a
remnant low around that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 15.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 15.5N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 16.1N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 16.4N 113.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 16.8N 114.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 17.1N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 17.6N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z 17.6N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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