ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tammy Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202023
200 PM AST Thu Oct 19 2023
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TAMMY MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN 
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 56.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a 
Hurricane Watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and 
Nevis.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis 
  
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Anguilla 
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later
today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 56.4 West. Tammy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A slower westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight.  A turn 
toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, and this motion should 
continue into the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Tammy will move near or over the Leeward Islands Friday and 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Tammy is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity when it
moves near the Leeward Islands.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) 
primarily to the east of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 
1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tammy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning Friday.  Hurricane conditions 
are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands Friday night and 
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical 
storm watch area beginning on Friday.
 
RAINFALL:  Through Sunday, Tammy is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands.  Rainfall
totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches are
expected for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands into eastern Puerto
Rico. These rains may produce isolated flash and urban flooding,
along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Tammy
moves across the Leeward Islands.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Tammy will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles today, and will continue into the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN