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HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 22 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  61.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  61.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  61.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.8N  62.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.2N  63.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N  63.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.6N  63.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.1N  63.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 25.0N  62.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 27.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  61.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 22/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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