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HURRICANE TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  60.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE  60SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  60.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  60.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N  61.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N  62.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.3N  63.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.6N  64.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.9N  64.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.8N  64.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.5N  63.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N  62.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  60.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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