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TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  53.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  53.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  52.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.2N  55.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.7N  56.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N  58.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N  60.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N  61.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.4N  62.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N  63.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N  60.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  53.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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