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TROPICAL STORM TAMMY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
2100 UTC WED OCT 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  51.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  51.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  51.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.1N  53.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.5N  55.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.1N  58.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.0N  60.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N  61.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N  62.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.4N  63.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N  60.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  51.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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