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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192023
0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N  32.0W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N  32.0W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.6N  31.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 10.1N  33.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 10.7N  35.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 11.4N  37.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.2N  38.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.1N  40.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N  41.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N  43.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N  45.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.7N  32.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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