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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  65.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  65.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  65.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.3N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.7N  66.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.6N  65.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.8N  65.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N  65.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE  50SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.8N  65.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE  80SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 46.8N  67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 52.9N  71.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N  65.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 04/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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