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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  65.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N  65.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.3N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE  60SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N  65.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE  60SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 43.1N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 51.5N  72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  65.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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