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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  64.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  64.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  64.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N  65.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N  66.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.8N  66.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.2N  66.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.2N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.2N  65.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  40SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 38.1N  66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.8N  66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  64.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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