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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  63.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE  20SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  63.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  63.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N  64.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.2N  65.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.9N  65.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.8N  65.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.3N  65.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 30.1N  64.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  40SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 35.5N  63.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 41.7N  63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  63.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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