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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  61.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE   0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  61.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  61.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N  62.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N  62.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N  63.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.2N  63.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N  63.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N  63.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 30.6N  62.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  61.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEVENSON
 
 
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