ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  57.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  57.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  56.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N  57.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.1N  58.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.8N  59.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N  60.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.6N  61.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N  61.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.8N  61.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 28.5N  59.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  57.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
NNNN