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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  54.6W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  54.6W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  54.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.7N  55.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.6N  55.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.4N  56.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N  56.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.6N  57.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.3N  57.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.7N  58.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N  58.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  54.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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