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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  54.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  54.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  53.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N  55.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N  56.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N  57.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.9N  58.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  10NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.8N  60.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N  61.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.4N  64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N  66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  54.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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