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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  53.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  53.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  53.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N  54.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 160SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.6N  56.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 110SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N  57.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE  80SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N  59.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.9N  60.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N  62.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 18.4N  64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 18.1N  66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  53.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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