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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  41.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  41.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  40.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N  43.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N  45.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N  47.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N  49.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N  50.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.2N  52.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N  54.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N  55.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  41.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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