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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
WASHINGTON DC 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 8 8(16) 4(20) 5(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 14 11(25) 4(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 11(14) 10(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
WALLOPS CDA 34 18 15(33) 4(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
RICHMOND VA 34 9 30(39) 10(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
DANVILLE VA 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NORFOLK NAS 34 32 33(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
NORFOLK VA 34 38 31(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 49 19(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 82 8(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
RALEIGH NC 34 22 10(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
ROCKY MT NC 34 71 15(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
ROCKY MT NC 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 36 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHERRY PT NC 50 26 18(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW RIVER NC 50 36 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
NEW RIVER NC 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 53 5(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SURF CITY NC 50 57 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
SURF CITY NC 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 50 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
FLORENCE SC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LITTLE RIVER 34 41 2(43) X(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44)
LITTLE RIVER 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 29 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
NNNN
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