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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  50.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 320SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N  50.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N  51.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.2N  46.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 44.2N  39.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.3N  31.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 220SE 170SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 50.9N  25.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 54.9N  22.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 56.6N  22.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 58.0N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N  50.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 
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