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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  53.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  53.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N  53.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.8N  49.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.8N  43.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.7N  35.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 220SE 170SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.0N  27.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 53.0N  23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 56.0N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N  53.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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