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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N  54.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N  54.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N  54.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.4N  51.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 130SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.6N  46.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 44.6N  39.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 47.6N  31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 220SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 51.3N  24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 55.0N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 57.0N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 58.0N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N  54.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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