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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  54.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  54.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  55.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N  53.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.8N  49.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.8N  43.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.7N  35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 49.2N  28.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 52.4N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 57.1N  23.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 59.1N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N  54.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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