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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  54.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  54.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  53.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.3N  54.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N  54.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N  51.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.0N  46.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.8N  39.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 170SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 46.5N  31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 170SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 59.0N  21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  54.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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