ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0900 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  53.6W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  53.6W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  53.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.2N  54.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.8N  54.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N  53.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N  49.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.5N  42.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.0N  34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  20NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 170SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 51.8N  21.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 58.5N  21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N  53.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
NNNN