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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  52.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  52.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N  52.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N  53.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.1N  54.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.7N  54.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 37.6N  51.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.5N  46.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 160SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 43.4N  39.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.0N  24.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 57.0N  17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N  52.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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