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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  52.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  52.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  51.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N  53.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.0N  54.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.4N  54.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.2N  53.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.1N  50.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.1N  43.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 160SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 48.0N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 56.0N  18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N  52.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER B REINHART/A REINHART
 
 
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