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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N  51.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE  50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N  51.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  51.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.4N  52.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.0N  53.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N  54.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.6N  54.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 37.4N  52.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.3N  47.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 46.5N  33.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 53.5N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N  51.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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