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HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  50.7W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......140NE  90SE  50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  50.7W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  50.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.6N  51.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.1N  53.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.8N  54.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.1N  55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.7N  53.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  50.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 44.5N  37.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 51.5N  21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N  50.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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