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TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  50.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  50.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  49.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.0N  51.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N  52.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.1N  54.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.1N  55.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N  54.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 37.4N  52.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.1N  42.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.8N  28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N  50.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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