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TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  49.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N  49.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  49.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N  50.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.8N  52.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N  53.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.0N  55.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.1N  55.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.7N  54.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 41.3N  45.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 47.8N  31.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N  49.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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