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TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  49.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  49.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  48.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.3N  50.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.8N  51.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N  53.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N  54.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.8N  55.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.2N  54.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 39.6N  49.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 46.5N  35.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N  49.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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