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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  38.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 130SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 260SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  38.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  38.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.1N  40.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.3N  41.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.1N  43.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N  42.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N  40.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.6N  37.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 37.8N  33.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 38.0N  30.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N  38.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY/BUCCI
 
 
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