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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N  38.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
34 KT.......260NE 180SE 130SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 270SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N  38.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N  38.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.5N  39.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.3N  41.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.8N  42.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.0N  43.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.7N  41.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.9N  39.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.5N  33.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N  38.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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